2020/12/09    
news briefing 
       
    According to estimates by the IDC, shipments of smartphones worldwide in the fourth quarter will grow by 2.4% compared to the same period last year. In addition, the global market will rebound rapidly because of the aggressive promotion by OEMS and distributors. In 2021, the sale of smartphones worldwide will also expand by 4.4%.

impact analysis 
 
    Affected by the pandemic, it was originally estimated that the sale of smartphones worldwide should have dropped by more than 10% throughout 2020. Nonetheless, even if there is still a slight decline of 1.3% upon the release of sales data for the third quarter, the extent to which the market has rebounded has exceeded the expectations of most if it is compared with a decline of 13.9% in the first half of the year, while the pessimistic atmosphere has also been temporarily relieved. Despite the performance in the third quarter being considered favourable, part of the reasons can be attributed to the delayed demands that should occur in the first half of the year. The impact of the pandemic on global consumption remains and as such, the performance in the fourth quarter will be key as we observe if the mobile phone market is genuinely catching up or merely displaying a phenomenal rebound. According to the forecast released by the IDC, the recovery timeline for positive growth for smartphones worldwide will be advanced from 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2020, with a greater chance that it can be somewhat initially adjudicated to the former.
     In terms of PCB, high value 5G products are the key to growth for Taiwanese business output in 2020. Although the warning signs from the pandemic have not been lifted and continues to exert a certain impact on the market size, companies have responded by reducing expenditure as it accelerates the shrinking rate for 4G mobile phones. According to estimates, the global penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will increase rapidly from 19% in 2020 to 58% in 2024. In other words, the momentum of global smartphone recovery will, from the fourth quarter, be highly dependent on 5G mobile phones. As viewed from the perspective of external factors, technological trends in the next three years may be quite beneficial to Taiwanese manufacturers. Hence, as we view the prospect of 2021 after the pandemic has subsided, the output growth rate for Taiwan's PCB industry is likely make a turn for the better compared to 2020.